Bicentennial cycle of deep cooling starting in 2014 – another little ice age in 2055±11 years


Bicentennial cycle of deep cooling starting in 2014 – another little ice age in 2055±11 years

Interesting but odd assumptions. The article states:

“From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI [total solar irradiance] and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014. Due to increase of albedo and decrease of the greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration the absorbed portion of solar energy and the influence of the greenhouse effect will additionally decline.”

I didn’t know that the planetary albedo was going to go up and the atmospheric CO2 concentration was going to go down during this century! The latest plot of CO2 from Mauna Loa indicates that the atmospheric concentration is still on an upward trend (see image below). This trend may very well continue with rapid economic development in countries like China and India. Whether planetary albedo will go up or down seems to be in debate. In any case it would be important for climate change models to incorporate the reduction in the predicted total solar irradiance. Are there any studies that have done this?


Image is from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide

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One thought on “Bicentennial cycle of deep cooling starting in 2014 – another little ice age in 2055±11 years

  1. In the above post I made the following statement and question: “In any case it would be important for climate change models to incorporate the reduction in the predicted total solar irradiance. Are there any studies that have done this?” Here is a link that addresses this question http://www.skepticalscience.com/heading-into-new-little-ice-age-intermediate.htm
    They conclude: “The warming effect from more CO2 greatly outstrips the influence from changes in the Earth’s orbit or solar activity, even if solar levels were to drop to Maunder Minimum levels.”

    Also, with regard to our entering a another ice age:
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/heading-into-new-little-ice-age-intermediate.htm
    “To those with lingering doubts that an ice age might be imminent, turn your eyes towards the northern ice sheets. If they’re growing, then yes, the 10,000 year process of glaciation may have begun. However, currently the Arctic permafrost is degrading, Arctic sea ice is melting and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate. These are hardly good conditions for an imminent ice age.”

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